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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.