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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."